אני לא מבין למה אנשים מתעקשים לסבך את זה יותר ממה שזה, אין קשר בין שער הדולר למחיר המניה, ועדיין בסוף היום, אני צריך להמיר את הסכום בחזרה
, וכאן יש משמעות מה השתנה בשער של הדולר מול השקל בתקופה השקעתי.
To understand this, first imagine an ETF that holds nothing but USD actual physical cash, in a large vault of US dollar banknotes somewhere. Suppose your home currency is EUR, and you buy €100 worth of shares. Over time, the USD strengthens relative to the EUR by 5%. Your holding is now worth €105, even though the assets the ETF holds have not changed in USD terms.
Now, imagine replacing the physical USD cash in this ETF with US stocks, denominated in USD and tracking the
S&P 500 index. After this, your returns will be the return on the stocks, but with the additional component of currency gain (or loss) between the USD and the EUR. If the S&P 500 rises by 10% and the USD rises by 5% relative to the EUR, you will see a 15% gain. Or, if the S&P 500 falls by 10% but the USD rises by 5% relative to the EUR, this exchange rate variation cushions the stock fall for you, so that you would see only a 5% loss.
In the worst case, losses combine. For example, a 10% fall in the S&P 500 along with a 5% rise in the value of the EUR relative to the USD (or a 5% fall in the value of the USD relative to the EUR; they are the same thing) registers for you as a 15% loss. Compare to a 10% loss registered by a USD investor.
Where an ETF contains assets from more than one foreign country, the currency risk and return is between your home currency and the currency of those other countries, in proportion to the ETF assets held in those countries. For example, if 60% of an all-world index ETF is US stocks, then 60% of the currency risk (and currency gain or loss) is between your home currency and the USD.