Deutsche Bank just released a study on long term investing. It covers hundreds of years (in some cases), multiple asset classes and multiple countries.
The report is long (52) pages, but there is an extensive summary that I found interesting. Some highlights:
Our median 200-year series of global inflation-adjusted returns in USD terms shows equities returning 4.9% p.a., a 60/40 portfolio returning 4.2%, government bonds 2.6%, bills 1.9%, gold 0.4% and cash -2.0%. History shows that investors have been consistently rewarded for taking risk and compounding the dividends and coupons available in equities and bonds.
Of the 55 economies in our FX dataset, only three — Switzerland, Singapore, and the Netherlands — have seen their currencies appreciate against the dollar over the past century. 25 out of 55 have depreciated by more than -99%.
Over the long term, gold has struggled far behind financial assets that pay a dividend/coupon. But in the 21st century so far, gold is outperforming everything at 7.45% p.a. By comparison equities in the US (5.8% p.a.), Germany (3.9% p.a.), and the UK (3.3% p.a.) have all underperformed in real terms since 2000, as have government bonds, which have delivered real annual returns of 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively in those three markets.
https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD ... 0000607211
The report is long (52) pages, but there is an extensive summary that I found interesting. Some highlights:
Our median 200-year series of global inflation-adjusted returns in USD terms shows equities returning 4.9% p.a., a 60/40 portfolio returning 4.2%, government bonds 2.6%, bills 1.9%, gold 0.4% and cash -2.0%. History shows that investors have been consistently rewarded for taking risk and compounding the dividends and coupons available in equities and bonds.
Of the 55 economies in our FX dataset, only three — Switzerland, Singapore, and the Netherlands — have seen their currencies appreciate against the dollar over the past century. 25 out of 55 have depreciated by more than -99%.
Over the long term, gold has struggled far behind financial assets that pay a dividend/coupon. But in the 21st century so far, gold is outperforming everything at 7.45% p.a. By comparison equities in the US (5.8% p.a.), Germany (3.9% p.a.), and the UK (3.3% p.a.) have all underperformed in real terms since 2000, as have government bonds, which have delivered real annual returns of 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively in those three markets.
https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD ... 0000607211
